Having been in this business for 30 + years, I would say I have a pretty good grasp of restaurant trends. However, what’s happening now is of note…and it’s not something I have seen before. Even in the 2008 crash (I was living in New York City at that point) I still saw people going out regularly in all sectors of dining.
I am hearing from colleagues near and far about restaurants being slower. Strikingly, painfully slower. These comments started circulating back in October and have continued pretty consistently since then. It could be all manner of factors…the state of the world, economics, seasonality. Who knows? What I do know is that it’s harder for restaurants right now.
Using Copine as an example: we shoot for about 50 guests per night and have not had issue with hitting that number since we re-opened in late 2021. (Last year was pretty irregular…James Beard brings a different business level and set of circumstances. It was just always busy.) But not quite halfway through 2024…it’s quieter than I have seen before. We get to 50 some nights…but it’s a slow build to get there. On top of that…we have a full crew that we pay quite well. They work hard, are loyal and are pushed each week to be better than the last. So that’s the gravy…that’s the part that makes sense. Making a career in hospitality desirable.
When I look at something like renewing a lease I think you can’t keep making change in this industry unless you stay in the industry. But is that doable? Is it going to become too stressful? I don’t know. I guess the next couple of years will help us decide…